Following weaker activity at the end of 2007, growth picked up strongly at the beginning of the current year. So far, there is little evidence of significant adverse effects on the real economy coming from the financial turmoil, the strong euro or high commodity prices. However, growth is expected to ease over the remainder of this year, mostly on account of slower export growth, before returning to trend in the course of next year. Private consumption is projected to pick up, reflecting the significant growth in disposable income. As the labour market is getting tight, the period of wage moderation is coming to an end.